Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal MultipliersInternational Monetary Fund, 03.01.2013 - 43 Seiten This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. |
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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Daniel Leigh Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 2013 |
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actual multipliers advanced economies Appendix Table April 2010 WEO assumed multipliers autocorrelation basedon baseline results baseline sample Constant term control variable controllingfor crisis denotes statistical significance effects of fiscal error for real errors in parentheses estimates and heteroskedasticity-robust estimates and Newey-West estimates not reported European Commission fiscal consolidation forecasts fiscal multipliers fiscal policy forecasts of fiscal government spending Growth Forecast Errors heteroskedasticity heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors Iceland IMF’s International Monetary Fund learning by forecasters liquidity trap Newey-West standard errors OECD offiscal ofthe Olivier Blanchard Panel of Forecasts parentheses correcting planned fiscal consolidation real GDP growth regression down-weights observations relation between fiscal relative to forecasts reports point estimates robust regression slope coefficient sovereign CDS spreads structural fiscal balance t-statistic Table reports point Taiwan Province term and time-fixed thebaseline theestimate time-fixed effects included two-year intervals vulnerability rating Washington weighted least squares World Economic Outlook