Apocalypse Soon?: Wagering on Warnings of Global CatastropheMcGill-Queen's Press - MQUP, 01.10.2002 - 160 Seiten Using arguments that parallel those of Blaise Pascal and William James, Haller offers prudential reasons for caution that should convince those not already persuaded by ethical arguments. While models of global systems can reveal only possible, not probable, futures, the catastrophic threats posed by such things as global warming, ozone depletion, or population increase represent what James would call "live options": that is, they present us with a plausible possibility that forces us to make momentous decisions. Haller concludes that we cannot afford to risk catastrophe, despite the high costs this decision involves. |
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Seite 5
... method of assessing a model by measuring its predictive success is not available for models of the kind that predict future global catastrophes like nuclear winter or global warming. Obviously, observations that a models predictions of ...
... method of assessing a model by measuring its predictive success is not available for models of the kind that predict future global catastrophes like nuclear winter or global warming. Obviously, observations that a models predictions of ...
Seite 11
... method for studying global systems in order to evaluate claims of potential catastrophe and to see whether intervention is possible. In chapter 2, I will discuss the nature of modelling in general. In this chapter, I will sketch some ...
... method for studying global systems in order to evaluate claims of potential catastrophe and to see whether intervention is possible. In chapter 2, I will discuss the nature of modelling in general. In this chapter, I will sketch some ...
Seite 27
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Inhalt
3 | |
9 | |
DirectTests | 33 |
Two Requirements for Successful Prediction | 39 |
Indirect Tests | 53 |
DilemmasandDefences | 65 |
Science and Values in Decision | 79 |
Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty and High Risk | 87 |
DemocraticEpistemology | 114 |
A Pascalian Argument for Precaution | 141 |
141 | 165 |
Andere Ausgaben - Alle anzeigen
Apocalypse Soon?: Wagering on Warnings of Global Catastrophe Stephen Francis Haller Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 2002 |
Apocalypse Soon?: Wagering on Warnings of Global Catastrophe Stephen Francis Haller Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 2002 |
Häufige Begriffe und Wortgruppen
able accepted action activities actually adopt argue arguments assessment assumed assumptions avoid behaviour believe benefits carbon catastrophe cause chapter claims Climate Change commitments complex correct costs course debate decide decisions described Earth effects emissions environment environmental epistemic error estimates ethical evidence example existence expected experience explain fact fear future Giere give global systems global warming greenhouse growth harm historical human hypothesis ignorance increase initial involved James judgments justify laws levels Limits live mean measurements method models of global moral nature nuclear winter observations ocean outcome particular political population possible potential practical precaution precautionary principle predictions present probability problems proof question rationality reasons reliable represent Responsibility result risk scientific scientists sensitive Shrader-Frechette strategy successful supply temperature theory things tion uncertainty various