Apocalypse Soon?: Wagering on Warnings of Global Catastrophe

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McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP, 01.10.2002 - 160 Seiten
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Using arguments that parallel those of Blaise Pascal and William James, Haller offers prudential reasons for caution that should convince those not already persuaded by ethical arguments. While models of global systems can reveal only possible, not probable, futures, the catastrophic threats posed by such things as global warming, ozone depletion, or population increase represent what James would call "live options": that is, they present us with a plausible possibility that forces us to make momentous decisions. Haller concludes that we cannot afford to risk catastrophe, despite the high costs this decision involves.

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Inhalt

Introduction
3
predictions of global catastrophe based
9
DirectTests
33
Two Requirements for Successful Prediction
39
Indirect Tests
53
DilemmasandDefences
65
Science and Values in Decision
79
Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty and High Risk
87
DemocraticEpistemology
114
A Pascalian Argument for Precaution
141
141
165
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Über den Autor (2002)

Wilfrid Laurier University

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