of the United States 1973

-The 94th edition of America's most authoritative source of facts

-The most sought-after publication for National statistics since 1878

Presenting

A special introductory table featuring Recent Trends for selected measures of social and economic change.

A section on Metropolitan Area Statistics showing the latest data for 157 large metropolitan areas.

A new section presenting a broad selection of statistics for Federal Administrative Regions and their component States.

• A Guide to Sources listing over 800 statistical publications on 50 major subjects.

A pocket-size insert of summary data USA Statistics in Brief, 1973 designed for quick and easy reference.

And in over 1,300 tables and charts-derived from over 200 government, private, and international agencies-are statistics handily arranged and of interest to everyone.

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The following STATISTICAL ABSTRACT reprints are available separately:

Statistics for Federal Regions, States, and Metropolitan Areas-a reprint of the sections on Metropolitan Area Statistics and Federal Administrative Regions.

82 pp. at 85 cents USA Statistics in Brief, 1973-the convenient pocket-size insert mentioned above.

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STATISTICAL ABSTRACT of the United States 1973

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CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS

Series P-26, No. 57

February 1974

This report presents population estimates for July 1, 1972 and provisional estimates for July 1, 1973, for counties and metropolitan areas prepared under the auspices of the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Local Population Estimates. The objective of this program is the development and publication of State-prepared estimates of the population of counties using uniform procedures largely standardized for data input and methodology. The methods used have been mutually agreed upon by the individual States and the Bureau of the Census on the basis of a test of methods against the 1970 census. For a more detailed description of the program and an analysis of the test results, see Current Population Reports, Series P-26, No. 21, "Federal-State Cooperative Program for Local Population Estimates: Test Results--April 1, 1970," April 1973.

County estimates for July 1, 1971 and provisional estimates for July 1, 1972 were published earlier in Current Population Reports, Series P-26, No. 15. The provisional estimates in that report are superseded by the numbers published here. Because of changes in input data for some counties since that report, estimates shown here may not always be completely comparable with those for the earlier years.

The estimates shown here for the three counties in the State were prepared by the Delaware State Planning Office. This agency was designated by the Governor to work with the Bureau of the Census on implementing and carrying out the Federal-State Cooperative Program.

The estimates shown for July 1, 1972 are based on an average of the following methods, adjusted to agree with the July 1, 1972 State estimates published in Series P-25, No. 508.

1. The Regression (ratio-correlation) method. In the Regression method a multiple regression equation is used to relate changes in a number of different data series to change in population distribution. The series of data used in the Regression method for Delaware are: two-year average of resident births (X1), two-year average of resident deaths (X2), elementary school enrollment in grades 1 through 8 plus elementary special and elementary ungraded (X3), and automobile registrations (X4).2 The prediction equation for Delaware for the 1970's is given by = 0.4029 +0.4073X1

0.1802X2

+0.1896X3 +0.1848X4

1Descriptions of methodologies are given in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 427 and 460. Modifications made to the methodologies for the current series will be given in forthcoming reports in Series P-25.

2In order to produce a significant regression equation, the three counties in Delaware were combined with 12 counties on Maryland's eastern shore to yield 15 observations. The Maryland counties included in the Delaware regression were Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne's, St. Mary's, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

2. Component Method II. This method employs vital statistics to measure natural increase and school enrollment to measure net migration. The estimates made by the Census Bureau's Component Method II are specific to the civilian population under 65. To this population is added. an estimate of the resident military population based on station strength statistics and an estimate of the population 65 and over based on Medicare statistics.1

The provisional July 1, 1973 estimate for New Castle County was developed by adding the average change between 1972 and 1973 estimates based on Component Method II and the Housing Unit method to the 1972 estimate. In the Housing Unit method the estimates of population are based on estimates of the housing inventory. Changes in the housing inventory are derived from data on building permits issued and demolition records, or on data on electric meter connections. The provisional July 1, 1973 estimates for the remaining counties were developed by adding the change between 1972 and 1973 Component Method II estimates to the 1972 estimates. All counties were subsequently adjusted

1 See footnote 1 on page 1.

to agree with the provisional July 1, 1973 State estimate published in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 508.

Table 2 of this report presents estimates of the population of metropolitan areas and metropolitan counties in the State. The titles and definitions of the standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA's) are those currently defined by the Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President. Where an SMSA falls in more than one State (indicated in the SMSA title), information on the other State parts of the area can be obtained by referring to the P-26 reports for the other States.

Corresponding estimates for other States in the program will be published as they become available. The appendix table shows reports published to date for States in the 1972-73 series, together with those published earlier for 1971 and provisional 1972.

The estimates presented in the table have been rounded to the nearest hundred without being adjusted to the State total, which was independently rounded to the nearest thousand. Percentages are based on unrounded numbers.