THE OLD AND NEW YEAR. THE PAST

I.

AND THE FUTURE.

chronicling the events of the last month of the most eventful year now just passed away, it is impossible to avoid again indulging in that selfcongratulation which has become the privilege of the English nation. It may be trite, but it is not the less true, that we owe a great debt of thankfulness to Providence for having averted from this country the calamities which have occurred so largely elsewhere. If such confidence in our own position might have been deemed premature, even but a few months ago, it can scarcely be said to be so now; for the events of the last month are not re-assuring in their character merely because, in the order of time, they seem to indicate a natural period to alarm, but also because the returning peace and prosperity of Europe seem to be a natural consequence of revolutionary turbulence having, for the present, at least, run its course.

The people of England now stand, perhaps, higher among the nations than at any previous period of their history. Gifted by the popular character of our institutions with an almost unlimited power of aggression on, or resistance to, the established order of things, they have only exercised their power by maintaining a rigid, and almost absolute abstinence from political excitement. Questions which, at any other period, would have provoked the most violent demonstrations of public opinion, have been, by

common consent, either adjusted by mutual concession, or postponed to a more convenient opportunity; and if there be any result more worthy of notice than another, it is that while the people of other countries have throughout the year been more or less in a state of aggression upon their rulers, the characteristic of the interval in England has rather been that the hands of the Government have been strengthened.

It is not alone in a self-gratulating and national point of view that we must regard the historical records of the year. Looking at them as affecting the interests of human nature, it is impossible not to rejoice at the aspect of affairs on the Continent. Revolutions, commenced in the fiercest spirit of turbulence, have ended in the peaceful adoption, by common consent, of constitutional forms of government; and as we can point to no period in history when the revolutionary spirit has manifested itself with such simultaneous universality, so, also, is it impossible to record an instance of a successful revolution, even in an individual state, having been accomplished with so little of crime and of bloodshed. The peaceful unanimity with which the new settlement of the nation has been adopted in France, the comparative ease with which the Imperial power of Austria has finally re-asserted itself against the democratic spirit, the promising signs of an amicable settlement on a constitutional basis of the affairs of the distracted Prussian

kingdom, these, and the little encouragement given, even by the unquiet spirits of each nation to the turbulent party in any other, are signs of an advance of mankind in rational appreciation of the solid blessings of government, and of the declining fascinations of those theoretic phantoms which have hitherto seduced the ardent, imaginative, and if unthinking, still sincere friends of liberty, into the ways which lead to tyranny and slavery.

If the past afford reasonable sources of self-congratulation, the future also leads to hope. Reflecting minds had long anticipated a fearful conflict, when the various nations of Germany, no longer content to be held in the bonds of childhood, should arise and throw off that paternal form of government which, though it might be agreeable to the people in their social character, was not the less a tyranny over the mind. Although in the strife, now, we hope, passed for ever, some isolated crimes of great atrocity have been committed; and although in some places, and for brief periods, some of the most disorderly features of mob-violence have developed themselves, still, upon the whole, it must be admitted that so appalling a crisis could scarcely have been passed at the cost of so slight an inroad on the constituted barriers of society. It is, perhaps, to this comparatively mild developement of the revolutionary spirit that we must attribute the tendency, now happily manifested in central Europe, to effect a settlement of the great questions in dispute with moderated passions, and upon constitutional principles. The forbearance shewn by the sovereigns of Austria and Prussia, respectively, after having, by their military power, re-asserted their authority, is the best guarantee the world could have of the continuance of peace in Europe, and the reerection of the social edifice on new and firmer foundations.

PROSPECT OF A NEW POLITICAL
AGITATION.

In the absence of any general demand for organic changes in the constitution, Mr. Cobden, and those who with him were successful in the Anti-Corn-Law agitation, have laid the foundation of a new League. At

the commencement of the last year when the Government attempted the imposition of the additional two per cent Income-tax, a general movement of men of all parties against it took place at Liverpool. Such unanimity had never been exhibited in that town before. Almost immediately following this demonstration there came an attempt to organise an equally unanimous action upon another subject. If Tories, Whigs, and Radicals, could be induced to work together in resistance to increased taxation, why might they not be brought similarly to unite in agitating for a reduction of expenditure? Upon this calculation a society was formed, called the Financial Reform Association; but its promoters were not so successful, as in the former case, in bringing together the leading men of all parties. The Association, however, went to work with great energy and assiduity. They instituted inquiries into every branch of the public expenditure; overhauled the army, navy, ordnance, and miscellaneous estimates; and flooded the country with the results of their inquiries, contained in small tracts. They met, however, with but little favour. The English people do not begrudge royalty its splendours, nor do they think, looking at the average rate of incomes in the community, that our public servants are at all overpaid. They take a pride, too, in the army and the navy; and although, some years ago, a temporary fit of false economy led them to acquiesce in short-sighted reductions, they have since shewn great alacrity in repairing the error into which they then fell. The Liverpool Financial Reform Association, therefore, might have gone on distributing their tracts by hundreds of thousands without producing much effect, except among the most ignorant and prejudiced of the population. The press and the public, of all parties, felt more inclined to smile at their efforts than to take any active part in them, either for or against. They derived, however, some slight accession of importance, when Mr. Cobden thought proper to address to them a letter of detailed advice, in which he very plainly manifested a disposition to make common cause with them. The. success which attended this gentle

man's former agitation, his indomitable perseverance, and the businesslike way in which he follows up any political undertaking, naturally lead all reasonable men to attach some importance to his movements. From the moment Mr. Cobden wrote his letter to the Liverpool Association that society rose in importance; and it became evident that, like the Manchester men in the former instance, its members would be made the nucleus of a new agitation.

Mr. Cobden's plan is of that simple kind which naturally suggests itself to minds of his order. He merely proposes to reduce our naval and military expenditure by 10,000,0007. To justify this, he will have us absolutely abstain from all interference in the affairs of other nations; by which, of course, we must forego whatever advantages, political or commercial, we derive from our position: and he also proposes that we shall give up protecting our colonies, treating them in future as foreign nations. In other words, for the sake of saving 10,000,000l. a-year, we are entirely to change our whole system of policy as a nation--a proposition so totally foreign to the magnanimity of the national character, that if it were merely put forward upon its own merits, it might be left to its inevitable fate.

But we are threatened with a new agitation; and as the last great agitation swept away the whole of the corn duties, when prudence suggested their retention to a small extent, so may these new propositions of Mr. Cobden, converted into a dogma and used as a party cry, eventuate in some perplexing dilemma, out of which the country may not emerge without considerable risk. Unfor

tunately, the savings proposed by Mr. Cobden are accompanied by tempting baits to popular ignorance and cupidity, in the shape of proposals for the reduction of taxes.

It would perhaps be wise to avert, by anticipation, this threatened evil. A movement was made last session in the right direction. If there be in our general expenditure items. which might be spared or reduced, then it were well that those who are in authority should initiate the necessary savings, rather than leave room for a pretext for more sweeping changes, dangerous enough in themselves, but still more so if carried by unreasoning popular clamour, and in conjunction with a cry, misunderstood by those who sustain it, for a total change in some of the most vital features in our national policy.

The result of the West Riding election evidences the Conservative spirit of the country. The basis of the contest became shifted from the question of Roman Catholic endowment in Ireland to a choice between a Liberal candidate, supported by the Dissenters, and a Conservative candidate, who was not prepared to agree to a separation of Church and State, but who promised every practical reform consistent with the stability of our institutions. A triumphant majority manifested the preference of this important mixed constituency for the latter class of opinions. The election of Mr. Denison, taken in connexion with the return of Mr. Stanley for King's Lynn, must be considered an evidence that the animosities hitherto prevalent in the Conservative party are giving way to a natural spirit of co-operation.

FRANCE: ASCENDANCY OF BUONAPARTISM.

The election of Prince Charles Louis Napoleon Buonaparte, by five millions and more of Frenchmen to be President of the French Republic, is an event without a parallel in history. It casts all antecedents, remote or immediate, into the shade. For a long time previously his success had been anticipated. It was said that the Orleanists and Legitimists would instruct their adherents

to vote for Napoleon, as bringing them one step nearer to the restoration they severally desire. The Socialists and Red Republicans, it was calculated, would vote not so much in favour of Napoleon as against Cavaignac, in revenge for his having crushed them in June. Assuming, as a matter of course, that the Imperialists would vote for the nephew of the Emperor, these calculations left to General Cavaignac only those who sincerely desired a republic and

those of the bourgeoisie who were grateful to him for having rescued them from the Socialists. The result shewed that even these calculations fell short of the real state of feeling in France. The most sanguine friends of Napoleon had scarcely dared to anticipate that he would secure even the absolute majority. They thought that the numbers for the several candidates might so nearly approximate as to allow the Assembly to exercise a choice. But the polling throughout France falsified, in the most signal manner, these chess-board speculations. There was something, it seemed, that had taken deeper root in the French mind than Orleanism, Bourbonism, or Republicanism. Efforts are made to account for the unanimity of the French nation, by imputing to the people the most incomprehensible ignorance; but even if it were supposed that a few were so utterly benighted as to believe that they were actually voting for the Emperor Napoleon himself, and not for his nephew, still there would remain this Buonapartism unaccounted for.

From an early period in the contest, it became apparent that General Cavaignac had but a small chance of success. His services to the State availed little against the dazzling influence of the name of Napoleon. Still, it is highly honourable to this unpretending soldier, that he should have obtained nearly a million and a half of free votes, when Ledru Rollin could not command much more than one-fifth of that number. The insignificant total of votes for the Socialist candidate is a cheering symptom. But, on the other hand, the still smaller number of votes recorded for Lamartine yields a melancholy commentary on the uncertainty of popular favour.

A happy augury may be drawn from the ready acquiescence of all parties in the new Government. Had the Republic been established as many years as it has seen weeks, power could not have passed more quietly from the hands of the one ruler to those of the other. General Cavaignac, in his short address on resigning, manifested the manly simplicity of his character; and Louis Napoleon, in accepting office, recorded his promises to main

tain the Constitution with an emphatic earnestness which savoured of sincerity. The new ministry, although it does not include any of the most distinguished of contemporary French statesmen, is, nevertheless, composed of men of probity and talent. In the first flush of his prosperity, the new President can afford to govern without borrowing influence from others. Should his purposes be honourable, he will still have an array of talent to fall back upon sufficient to sustain him in the trials to which his administration must inevitably be exposed. Whatever may be the dynastic or personal intrigues hidden under the calm surface, there appears at present to be a fusion of parties in France which promises well. Among the most notable appointments is that of Marshal Bugeaud to the command of the Army of the Alps. At the time at which we write, no materials have been afforded by which to judge what will be the policy of the new Cabinet; but the character of its leading members, and the general temper of the French people at the present time, lead to the hope that there is nothing in the future threatening to the peace of Europe. France requires repose for the developement of her internal resources. Even the temporary confidence inspired by the settlement of the Government has put manufacturing industry in activity, charmed into circulation the hoarded specie of the country, and improved the funds. At no period since the later years of Louis Philippe's reign have the prospects of France appeared so favourable.

ITALY POSITION OF THE POPE.

The flight of the Pope from his capital was an event quite in the natural course of things. He did but follow the example of the ex-Emperor of Austria and the King of Prussia. It is trite to observe on the ingratitude of revolutionists who could thus make the Pope the most signal victim of the movement he had himself originated. It was impossible that the Pontiff should remain in his capital after the outrages to which he had been subjected, or that he should submit to allow a revolutionary ministry to rule in his name. Acting in accordance with