Human Judgment and Decision Making: Theories, Methods, and Procedures |
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Seite 183
3 Probability Estimation Probability estimation tasks , and the responses required
by them , can be roughly subdivided into two categories : ( a ) those requiring
indirect responses and ( b ) those requiring more or less direct estimation of ...
3 Probability Estimation Probability estimation tasks , and the responses required
by them , can be roughly subdivided into two categories : ( a ) those requiring
indirect responses and ( b ) those requiring more or less direct estimation of ...
Seite 202
not occur and a lottery that gives an objective probability p of consequence xc
and a complementary probability of l - p of consequence yc , then the judgmental
probability of E is p . During the calibration task , the DT or BDT decision analyst ...
not occur and a lottery that gives an objective probability p of consequence xc
and a complementary probability of l - p of consequence yc , then the judgmental
probability of E is p . During the calibration task , the DT or BDT decision analyst ...
Seite 215
3 ) Next , using probabilistic scaling techniques , a third equation can be
generated via a series of questions designed to find the probability , ( py ) such
that the decision maker is indifferent between the consequence ( yi , zo ) for sure
and a ...
3 ) Next , using probabilistic scaling techniques , a third equation can be
generated via a series of questions designed to find the probability , ( py ) such
that the decision maker is indifferent between the consequence ( yi , zo ) for sure
and a ...
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Inhalt
THEORY | 6 |
Scope | 31 |
Loci of Concepts | 91 |
Urheberrecht | |
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achievement aggregation aids alternatives analysis appears applied attempt attributes basic Bayesian behavior Brunswik causal Chapter choice claims cognitive complex concepts concerned considered cues decision maker DECISION THEORY described descriptive dimensions direct discussed distinction Edwards effects efforts empirical employed environment environmental estimates evaluation example formal function given Group Group II approaches human idiographic important independence indicate individual inference integration intended interest interpersonal involving judges judgment and decision Keeney knowing knowledge learning logical major means measurement methods nomothetic noted objective observable offers optimality organizing origins persons present principles probability problem procedures psychological questions Raiffa refers regard relation representativeness require response scale similar single-system six approaches social specific statistical stimuli studies subjective task theoretical theorists Tversky uncertainty utility variables various weights