Forecasting Innovations: Methods for Predicting Numbers of Patent Filings

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Peter Hingley, Marc Nicolas
Springer Science & Business Media, 23.11.2006 - 268 Seiten

This is a practical guide to solutions for forecasting demand for services and products in international markets - and much more than just a listing of dry theoretical methods. Leading experts present studies on improving methods for forecasting numbers of incoming patent filings at the European Patent Office. These are reviewed by practitioners of the existing methods, revealing that it may not always be wise to trust established regression approaches.

 

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Inhalt

Background
1
A research programme for improving forecasts of patent filings
9
From theory to time series
27
An assessment of the comparative accuracy of time series forecasts of patent filings the benefits of disaggregation in space or time
41
Driving forces of patent applications at the European Patent Office a sectoral approach
73
Time series methods to forecast patent filings
95
International patenting at the European Patent Office aggregate sectoral and family filings
125
Micro data for macro effects
159
Improving forecasting methods at the European Patent Office
190
References
247
Name index
255
Index
258
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