The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"Random House Publishing Group, 11.05.2010 - 480 Seiten The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. |
Inhalt
1 | |
Yevgenias Black Swan | 23 |
One Thousand and One Days or How Not to Be a Sucker | 38 |
Confirmation Shmonfirmation | 51 |
The Narrative Fallacy | 62 |
Living in the Antechamber of Hope | 85 |
Giacomo Casanovas Unfailing Luck | 100 |
The Ludic Fallacy or The Uncertainty of the Nerd | 122 |
GLOSSARY | 301 |
ILearning from Mother Nature the Oldest and the Wisest | 307 |
Do All This Walking or How Systems Become Fragile | 324 |
IIIMargaritas Ante Porcos | 330 |
70 | 335 |
IVAsperger and the Ontological Black Swan | 339 |
VPerhaps the Most Useful Problem in the History | 347 |
The Problem of Induction and Causation in the Complex Domain | 358 |
WE JUST CANT PREDICT | 135 |
How to Look for Bird Poop | 165 |
Epistemocracy a Dream | 190 |
Appelles the Painter or What Do You Do if | 201 |
THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN | 213 |
The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud | 229 |
62 | 232 |
67 | 249 |
The Aesthetics of Randomness | 253 |
The Logic of Fractal Randomness with a Warning | 262 |
Lockes Madmen or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places | 274 |
The Uncertainty of the Phony | 286 |
Half and Half or How to Get Even with the Black Swan | 295 |
VIIWhat to Do with the Fourth Quadrant | 367 |
VIIIThe Ten Principles for a BlackSwanRobust Society | 374 |
NOTES | 381 |
BIBLIOGRAPHY | 401 |
wwwwww N N N | 411 |
71 | 414 |
29 | 417 |
425 | |
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOR THE FIRST EDITION | 431 |
437 | |
438 | |
439 | |
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb Keine Leseprobe verfügbar - 2008 |
Häufige Begriffe und Wortgruppen
Amioun average behavior believe bell curve Benoît Mandelbrot bias Black Swan brain called Cambridge casino cause Chapter Cognitive confirmation bias consider decision deviations discuss distribution economic economists effect empirical empiricism epistemic error experience Extremistan Fat Tony forecast Fourth Quadrant fractal future Gaussian Gaussian bell curve human ice cube idea intellectual Journal Kahneman knowledge logic look luck ludic fallacy Mandelbrot mathematicians mathematics Matthew Effect Mediocristan million mind models Myron Scholes narrative fallacy nature Nobel notion odds past payoff percent person philosopher Platonic Poincaré power laws precise predict probability problem problem of induction Psychology randomness rare events risk scalable scientific scientists skeptical social someone statistical story Taleb theory things thinkers tion uncertainty understand University Press variables Yevgenia Yogi Berra York