England's
Interests.

calm consideration of this matter, that it cannot be
the vocation of England, or of any other Power,
to undertake the Quixotic task of carrying out
an ideal re-organisation of Turkey; the inhabitants
of the western shores of the Black Sea have no
more claim to have their
have their political condition
improved at the expense of Europe than any
other population which is dissatisfied with its
existing rulers.

What each European power has to consider in this, as in every other case, is its own interest, so far as it may be consistent with the general good of the world. Now, the existence of the Sultan's rule, weak and incapable as it is, does not interfere with the interests of any European obstacle to the aggressive

power; it is only an
designs of Russia.

The practical issue, there

fore, is reduced to this: Are the interests of any European Power affected by the ambitious policy pursued by Russia in Turkey?

Let us first consider this question so far as it concerns our own country. It is admitted on all hands that it is of vital importance for England to maintain unimperilled her com

munications with India.

While Russia remains

on the northern side of the Danube, our communications are tolerably secure; there is the whole of European Turkey and Asia Minor between her and the route to India, and she has no basis of operations in that quarter for her fleet. If, however, her political supremacy were extended to either the Asiatic or the European side of the Dardanelles, she would not only be able to send a fleet to the Suez Canal, but, supposing that it were intercepted by our ironclads, she could with her army march into Egypt through Syria, and thus both block the canal and possess herself of the nearest route to India through the Euphrates Valley. We could hardly hope to prevent such an operation, against so huge a Power as Russia, by the small military forces at our disposal, even if we had previously adopted the costly and somewhat immoral, if not dangerous, expedient of occupying Egypt; and if we allowed Russia to close up the Black Sea, we should render the great naval force we could otherwise use against her practically harmless.

Austria's Interests.

To put it on the lowest ground :—even if we exclude from consideration the enormous losses of all kinds which we should suffer by the interruption of our communications with India, the establishment of the Russian power in Turkey would in itself be very prejudicial to our trade. It has been very justly pointed out by Mr. Ashworth, the President of the Manchester Chamber of Commerce, that our commercial interests would be greatly damaged by the dominion of Russia being substituted for that of the Sultan, because her commercial policy is restrictive, and is mainly directed against English industries; while Turkey is essentially a free-trade Power, with which England has a much larger commerce than with Russia, our exports to the former country having amounted last year to nearly £13,000,000, while to Russia they were only £3,100,000.

The interests of Austria in the East are no less important and obvious than those of England, and they are in even greater danger from Russian aggression. Out of a total population of about 36,000,000 in Austria-Hungary, 16,000,000

are Slavs. This, however, does not adequately represent the entire area of Slavonic influence in the Empire. The provinces of Galicia, Bohemia, Moravia, the Slovack and Servian districts of Hungary, Carinthia, Carniola, Croatia, and Dalmatia are all inhabited by a population which is predominantly Slavonic, and would necessarily be included, together with the populations of other races in those territories, in any redistribution of political power in Eastern Europe on a Slavonic basis. Such a redistribution would naturally follow, sooner or later, from the establishment of a Slavonic aggressive power like that of Russia in the country between the south-eastern frontier of Austria and the sea. But this, involving the loss to the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy of more than one half of its territory, would inevitably result in the total extinction of Austria as a State.*

*It should not be inferred from the above remarks that the Slavs in Austria desire the establishment of a RussoSlavonic Empire. There is every reason to believe that if Austria declared war against Russia, the Slavonic soldiers in the Austrian army would prove as loyal as those of the other nationalities. But the Slavonic provinces of Austria would

A glance at the map will show that Hungary, closed in on the north and south by its natural enemies, the Slavs, and deprived of the rich province of Transylvania-which, being mainly inhabited by a Roumanian population, would naturally fall to the Russo-Roumanian State of the future-would not be allowed by the Slavs to remain as a wedge dividing their otherwise united territory, and must necessarily share the fate of all small and weak States which stand in the way of a powerful neighbour. There would then only remain the German provinces, and these, finding it impossible to stand alone between two large military States, would be naturally led, both by their interests and proclivities of race and language, to join the great Empire of the Fatherland.

It is, therefore, simply a question of existence for Austria that the dominion of Russia in Eastern Europe should not be allowed to extend beyond its present limits. Even if Russia asked

be irresistibly drawn into the orbit of Russia if she became the centre of a new pan-Slavonic power, just as the Italian States gathered round Sardinia, and the German States round Prussia.