Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Chemical and Nuclear IndustriesButterworth-Heinemann, 2000 - 514 Seiten Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) determines the probability and consequences of accidents, hence, the risk. This subject concerns policy makers, regulators, designers, educators and engineers working to achieve maximum safety with operational efficiency. Risk is analyzed using methods for achieving reliability in the space program. The first major application was to the nuclear power industry, followed by applications to the chemical industry. It has also been applied to space, aviation, defense, ground, and water transportation. This book is unique in its treatment of chemical and nuclear risk. Problems are included at the end of many chapters, and answers are in the back of the book. Computer files are provided (via the internet), containing reliability data, a calculator that determines failure rate and uncertainty based on field experience, pipe break calculator, event tree calculator, FTAP and associated programs for fault tree analysis, and a units conversion code. It contains 540 references and many referrals to internet locations for information.
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Inhalt
Protecting the Public Health and Safety | 1 |
112 Industrial Revolution | 2 |
113 This Century | 3 |
12 Risk Assessment Objectives | 5 |
13 Risk Hazard and other Terms | 6 |
142 Shortcomings of Linear Risk | 7 |
143 Presentation of Risk | 8 |
144 Public Perception of Risk | 12 |
526 Fragility Curves | 199 |
53 Flood | 200 |
533 Internal Flood Modeling | 202 |
534 External Flooding | 203 |
54 Summary | 204 |
Analyzing Nuclear Reactor Safety Systems | 205 |
611 US Light Water Reactors | 206 |
612 Pressurized Water Reactors | 208 |
15 Safety Goals | 13 |
16 Emergency Planning Zones | 15 |
17 Use of PSA by Government and Industry | 17 |
18 Regulation of Nuclear Power | 18 |
183 Licensing Process | 19 |
184 Public Participation | 20 |
186 Inspection | 21 |
189 PSA Requirements | 22 |
The PSM Rule | 27 |
110 Summary | 33 |
111 Problems | 34 |
Mathematics for Probabilistic Safety | 35 |
22 Venn Diagram and Mincuts | 37 |
23 Probability and Frequency | 39 |
24 Combining Probabilities | 41 |
243 MOutofNCombinations | 42 |
251 Discrete Distributions | 43 |
252 Continuous Distributions | 44 |
253 Confidence Limits | 47 |
254 Markov Modeling | 48 |
255 Summary of Functions and their Generating Functions | 49 |
26 Bayesian Methods | 50 |
262 Bayes Conjugates for Including New Information | 51 |
263 Constant Failure Rate Model | 52 |
264 Failure on Demand Model | 54 |
265 Interpretations of Bayes Statistics | 55 |
27 Uncertainty Analysis | 56 |
272 Moments Method | 57 |
274 Monte Carlo | 59 |
275 Discrete Probability Distribution DPD | 60 |
28 Sensitivity Analysis and Importance Measures | 61 |
282 Importance Measures | 62 |
283 Relationships between the Importance Measures | 63 |
284 Interpretation and Usage | 64 |
29 Summary | 65 |
210 Problems | 66 |
Chemical and Nuclear Accident Analysis Methods | 67 |
313 Process Safety Information | 68 |
32 Process Hazard Analysis | 70 |
322 Operating Procedures and Practices | 71 |
325 PreStartup Safety | 72 |
327 Nonroutine Work Authorization | 73 |
329 Investigation of Incidents | 74 |
3211 Compliance Audits | 75 |
33 Qualitative Methods of Accident Analysis | 76 |
331 Checklist | 77 |
332 WhatIf Analysis | 81 |
333 WhatIfChecklist Analysis | 84 |
334 Hazard and Operability HAZOP | 86 |
335 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis | 94 |
34 Quantitative Methods of Accident Analysis | 97 |
341 Parts Count | 98 |
342 FMEAFMECA | 99 |
343 Reliability Block Diagram RBD | 100 |
344 Fault Tree Analysis | 101 |
345 Event Trees | 111 |
346 Alternatives to Fault Tree Analysis | 119 |
35 Common Cause of Failure | 123 |
351 Known Deterministic Coupling | 124 |
352 Known Stochastic Coupling | 125 |
355 Geometric Mean | 126 |
Emergency Electric Power | 127 |
36 Computer Codes for System Reliability Analysis | 128 |
361 Codes for Finding Minimal Cutsets and Tree Quantification | 130 |
362 Truncation of a Fault Tree | 133 |
363 Time Dependence | 134 |
366 Processing Cutset Information | 135 |
367 System Analysis Code Usage in Past PSAs | 136 |
372 PSAPACK | 141 |
373 RISKMAN | 143 |
374 RR Workstation | 144 |
375 WinNUPRA NUCAP+ and SAFETY MONITOR | 145 |
38 Summary | 147 |
Failure Rates Incidents and Human Factors Data | 151 |
42 Incident Reports | 158 |
43 Database Preparation | 160 |
433 Test Reports and Procedures | 161 |
434 Maintenance Reports | 162 |
437 Information Flow in Plant Data Collecting | 163 |
442 Lack of Human Error Considerations | 166 |
443 Cases Involving Human Error | 168 |
45 Incorporating Human Reliability Into a PSA | 173 |
452 Quantifying Human Probabilities HEPs | 175 |
453 Human Factors Data | 179 |
454 Example of Human Error Analysis | 180 |
455 HRA Event Tree NUREGCR1278 | 181 |
456 Comparison of Human Factors in PSAs | 183 |
47 Summary | 184 |
External Events | 185 |
512 Richter Magnitude Frequency of Occurrence Distribution | 188 |
513 Ground Coupling with Attenuation | 190 |
515 Fragility Curves | 192 |
516 System Analysis | 194 |
52 Fires | 195 |
522 Procedures for Fire Analysis | 196 |
523 Screening Analysis | 197 |
525 Fire Growth Modeling | 198 |
613 Boiling Water Reactors | 211 |
614 Advanced Light Water Reactors | 213 |
62 TMI2 and Chernobyl Accidents | 221 |
622 The Chernobyl Accident | 223 |
63 Preparing a Nuclear Power Plant PSA | 227 |
631 Overview of the Probabilistic Safety Process Using Event Trees | 228 |
633 PSA Construction | 234 |
Analyzing an Emergency Electric Power System | 236 |
Emergency Electric Power | 237 |
65 Summary | 241 |
Analyzing Chemical Process Safety Systems | 243 |
712 Some Deadly and Severe Chemical Accidents | 245 |
72 Chemical Processes | 259 |
722 Inorganic Chemicals | 260 |
723 Fertilizer Production | 262 |
724 Halogens and Their Compounds | 264 |
725 Organic Chemicals | 267 |
726 Explosives | 270 |
727 Plastics and Resins | 274 |
728 Paints and Varnishes | 281 |
729 Petrochemical Processing | 284 |
73 Chemical Process Accident Analysis | 291 |
731 Scoping Analysis | 293 |
732 Performing a Detailed Probabilistic Safety Analysis | 297 |
Analyzing a Chemical Tank Rupture | 302 |
742 Applying FTAPSUIT Chemical Process Tank Rupture | 303 |
75 Summary | 305 |
76 Problems | 306 |
Nuclear Accident Consequence Analysis | 307 |
812 Qualitative Description of Core Melt | 308 |
82 Source Terms for InPlant Radionuclide Transport | 312 |
822 Computer Codes for Fission Product Release and InPlant Transport | 314 |
823 Comparison with WASH1400 | 318 |
83 ExPlant Transport of Radionuclides | 319 |
832 Health Effects | 321 |
833 Radiation Shielding and Dose | 323 |
834 Computer Codes for Consequence Calculation | 327 |
835 Aquatic Transport | 329 |
Chemical Process Accident Consequence Analysis | 331 |
912 Discharge through a Pipe | 333 |
913 Gas Discharge from a Hole in a Tank | 335 |
914 Liquid Discharge from a Hole in a Tank | 336 |
916 Vessel Rupture Physical Explosion | 340 |
917 BLEVE Fireball and Explosion | 341 |
918 Missiles | 343 |
92 Chemical Accident Consequence Codes | 344 |
921 Source Term and Dispersion Codes | 345 |
922 Explosions and Energetic Events | 360 |
923 Fire Codes | 363 |
93 EPAs Exposure Model Library and Integrated Model Evaluation System | 366 |
932 PIRANHA | 369 |
935 THERDCD | 370 |
94 Summary | 371 |
Assembling and Interpreting the PSA | 373 |
102 Insights and Criticisms | 375 |
1021 Insights from Past PSAs | 376 |
Applications of PSA | 381 |
1112 ATWS | 382 |
1113 RiskBased Categorization of NRC Technical and Generic Issues | 383 |
1115 ValueImpact Analysis VIA | 384 |
1118 Individual Plant Evaluation PSAs | 390 |
1119 RiskBased Regulation | 398 |
Utility Experience and NRC Perspective | 400 |
112 PSA of the CANDU Heavy Water Power Reactor | 402 |
1122CANDU2 PSA | 403 |
1123 CANDU6 PSA | 404 |
1124 CANDU9 PSA | 405 |
113 Research and Production Reactor PSAs | 406 |
1132 High Flux Beam Reactor PSA | 409 |
1133 HFIR PSA | 412 |
1134 KReactor PSA | 414 |
1135 NReactor PSA | 420 |
1136 Omega West Reactor PSA | 424 |
114 Chemical PSAs | 426 |
11414 Societal Risk | 436 |
1143 Comparative Applications of HAZOP Facility Risk Review and Fault Trees | 438 |
1144 Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an Ammonia Storage Plant | 443 |
115 Problems | 447 |
Appendix Software on the Distribution Disk | 449 |
122 BETA | 450 |
123 BNLDATA | 451 |
125 Lambda | 455 |
126 UNITSCNV | 456 |
Glossary of Acronyms And Unusual Terms | 457 |
References | 465 |
142 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contractor Reports Identified by NUREGCR Numbers | 466 |
143 Electric Power Researeh Institute Reports Identified by NP Number | 469 |
| 470 | |
Answers to Problems | 491 |
152 Chapter 2 | 493 |
153 Chapter 3 | 494 |
154 Chapter 4 | 498 |
155 Chapter 6 | 499 |
156 Chapter 7 | 502 |
158 Chapter 11 | 504 |
Index | 507 |
Andere Ausgaben - Alle anzeigen
Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries Ralph Fullwood Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 1999 |
Häufige Begriffe und Wortgruppen
accident sequences acid ammonia ammonium nitrate analysis analyzed assessment auxiliary feedwater BLEVE Boolean calculated CALPUFF cause chemical process chlorine condenser consequences containment control rods coolant cooling core damage core melt database decay heat developed diagram dispersion distribution dose effects electrical emergency equation equipment estimate evaluation event tree explosion fail failure modes failure rate fault tree fault tree analysis feedwater Figure fire fission products flooding flow FMEA frequency FTAP FTAPSUIT fuel hazard HAZOP heat human error Human Reliability hydrogen identified initiating events injection input liquid LOCA loss maintenance material methods minimal cutsets nuclear power plants operating parameters performed pipe pressure procedures process safety management provides pump radiation reactor reduce release reliability risk rupture safety scram seismic selected shutdown steam Table temperature top event uncertainty vapor vessel
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