Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries

Cover
Butterworth-Heinemann, 2000 - 514 Seiten
Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) determines the probability and consequences of accidents, hence, the risk. This subject concerns policy makers, regulators, designers, educators and engineers working to achieve maximum safety with operational efficiency. Risk is analyzed using methods for achieving reliability in the space program. The first major application was to the nuclear power industry, followed by applications to the chemical industry. It has also been applied to space, aviation, defense, ground, and water transportation. This book is unique in its treatment of chemical and nuclear risk.

Problems are included at the end of many chapters, and answers are in the back of the book. Computer files are provided (via the internet), containing reliability data, a calculator that determines failure rate and uncertainty based on field experience, pipe break calculator, event tree calculator, FTAP and associated programs for fault tree analysis, and a units conversion code. It contains 540 references and many referrals to internet locations for information.

  • Provides the only free fault tree analysis computer code and reliability database
  • Very comprehensive coverage of chemical and nuclear risks
  • Gives links to the internet
 

Ausgewählte Seiten

Inhalt

Protecting the Public Health and Safety
1
112 Industrial Revolution
2
113 This Century
3
12 Risk Assessment Objectives
5
13 Risk Hazard and other Terms
6
142 Shortcomings of Linear Risk
7
143 Presentation of Risk
8
144 Public Perception of Risk
12
526 Fragility Curves
199
53 Flood
200
533 Internal Flood Modeling
202
534 External Flooding
203
54 Summary
204
Analyzing Nuclear Reactor Safety Systems
205
611 US Light Water Reactors
206
612 Pressurized Water Reactors
208

15 Safety Goals
13
16 Emergency Planning Zones
15
17 Use of PSA by Government and Industry
17
18 Regulation of Nuclear Power
18
183 Licensing Process
19
184 Public Participation
20
186 Inspection
21
189 PSA Requirements
22
The PSM Rule
27
110 Summary
33
111 Problems
34
Mathematics for Probabilistic Safety
35
22 Venn Diagram and Mincuts
37
23 Probability and Frequency
39
24 Combining Probabilities
41
243 MOutofNCombinations
42
251 Discrete Distributions
43
252 Continuous Distributions
44
253 Confidence Limits
47
254 Markov Modeling
48
255 Summary of Functions and their Generating Functions
49
26 Bayesian Methods
50
262 Bayes Conjugates for Including New Information
51
263 Constant Failure Rate Model
52
264 Failure on Demand Model
54
265 Interpretations of Bayes Statistics
55
27 Uncertainty Analysis
56
272 Moments Method
57
274 Monte Carlo
59
275 Discrete Probability Distribution DPD
60
28 Sensitivity Analysis and Importance Measures
61
282 Importance Measures
62
283 Relationships between the Importance Measures
63
284 Interpretation and Usage
64
29 Summary
65
210 Problems
66
Chemical and Nuclear Accident Analysis Methods
67
313 Process Safety Information
68
32 Process Hazard Analysis
70
322 Operating Procedures and Practices
71
325 PreStartup Safety
72
327 Nonroutine Work Authorization
73
329 Investigation of Incidents
74
3211 Compliance Audits
75
33 Qualitative Methods of Accident Analysis
76
331 Checklist
77
332 WhatIf Analysis
81
333 WhatIfChecklist Analysis
84
334 Hazard and Operability HAZOP
86
335 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
94
34 Quantitative Methods of Accident Analysis
97
341 Parts Count
98
342 FMEAFMECA
99
343 Reliability Block Diagram RBD
100
344 Fault Tree Analysis
101
345 Event Trees
111
346 Alternatives to Fault Tree Analysis
119
35 Common Cause of Failure
123
351 Known Deterministic Coupling
124
352 Known Stochastic Coupling
125
355 Geometric Mean
126
Emergency Electric Power
127
36 Computer Codes for System Reliability Analysis
128
361 Codes for Finding Minimal Cutsets and Tree Quantification
130
362 Truncation of a Fault Tree
133
363 Time Dependence
134
366 Processing Cutset Information
135
367 System Analysis Code Usage in Past PSAs
136
372 PSAPACK
141
373 RISKMAN
143
374 RR Workstation
144
375 WinNUPRA NUCAP+ and SAFETY MONITOR
145
38 Summary
147
Failure Rates Incidents and Human Factors Data
151
42 Incident Reports
158
43 Database Preparation
160
433 Test Reports and Procedures
161
434 Maintenance Reports
162
437 Information Flow in Plant Data Collecting
163
442 Lack of Human Error Considerations
166
443 Cases Involving Human Error
168
45 Incorporating Human Reliability Into a PSA
173
452 Quantifying Human Probabilities HEPs
175
453 Human Factors Data
179
454 Example of Human Error Analysis
180
455 HRA Event Tree NUREGCR1278
181
456 Comparison of Human Factors in PSAs
183
47 Summary
184
External Events
185
512 Richter Magnitude Frequency of Occurrence Distribution
188
513 Ground Coupling with Attenuation
190
515 Fragility Curves
192
516 System Analysis
194
52 Fires
195
522 Procedures for Fire Analysis
196
523 Screening Analysis
197
525 Fire Growth Modeling
198
613 Boiling Water Reactors
211
614 Advanced Light Water Reactors
213
62 TMI2 and Chernobyl Accidents
221
622 The Chernobyl Accident
223
63 Preparing a Nuclear Power Plant PSA
227
631 Overview of the Probabilistic Safety Process Using Event Trees
228
633 PSA Construction
234
Analyzing an Emergency Electric Power System
236
Emergency Electric Power
237
65 Summary
241
Analyzing Chemical Process Safety Systems
243
712 Some Deadly and Severe Chemical Accidents
245
72 Chemical Processes
259
722 Inorganic Chemicals
260
723 Fertilizer Production
262
724 Halogens and Their Compounds
264
725 Organic Chemicals
267
726 Explosives
270
727 Plastics and Resins
274
728 Paints and Varnishes
281
729 Petrochemical Processing
284
73 Chemical Process Accident Analysis
291
731 Scoping Analysis
293
732 Performing a Detailed Probabilistic Safety Analysis
297
Analyzing a Chemical Tank Rupture
302
742 Applying FTAPSUIT Chemical Process Tank Rupture
303
75 Summary
305
76 Problems
306
Nuclear Accident Consequence Analysis
307
812 Qualitative Description of Core Melt
308
82 Source Terms for InPlant Radionuclide Transport
312
822 Computer Codes for Fission Product Release and InPlant Transport
314
823 Comparison with WASH1400
318
83 ExPlant Transport of Radionuclides
319
832 Health Effects
321
833 Radiation Shielding and Dose
323
834 Computer Codes for Consequence Calculation
327
835 Aquatic Transport
329
Chemical Process Accident Consequence Analysis
331
912 Discharge through a Pipe
333
913 Gas Discharge from a Hole in a Tank
335
914 Liquid Discharge from a Hole in a Tank
336
916 Vessel Rupture Physical Explosion
340
917 BLEVE Fireball and Explosion
341
918 Missiles
343
92 Chemical Accident Consequence Codes
344
921 Source Term and Dispersion Codes
345
922 Explosions and Energetic Events
360
923 Fire Codes
363
93 EPAs Exposure Model Library and Integrated Model Evaluation System
366
932 PIRANHA
369
935 THERDCD
370
94 Summary
371
Assembling and Interpreting the PSA
373
102 Insights and Criticisms
375
1021 Insights from Past PSAs
376
Applications of PSA
381
1112 ATWS
382
1113 RiskBased Categorization of NRC Technical and Generic Issues
383
1115 ValueImpact Analysis VIA
384
1118 Individual Plant Evaluation PSAs
390
1119 RiskBased Regulation
398
Utility Experience and NRC Perspective
400
112 PSA of the CANDU Heavy Water Power Reactor
402
1122CANDU2 PSA
403
1123 CANDU6 PSA
404
1124 CANDU9 PSA
405
113 Research and Production Reactor PSAs
406
1132 High Flux Beam Reactor PSA
409
1133 HFIR PSA
412
1134 KReactor PSA
414
1135 NReactor PSA
420
1136 Omega West Reactor PSA
424
114 Chemical PSAs
426
11414 Societal Risk
436
1143 Comparative Applications of HAZOP Facility Risk Review and Fault Trees
438
1144 Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an Ammonia Storage Plant
443
115 Problems
447
Appendix Software on the Distribution Disk
449
122 BETA
450
123 BNLDATA
451
125 Lambda
455
126 UNITSCNV
456
Glossary of Acronyms And Unusual Terms
457
References
465
142 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contractor Reports Identified by NUREGCR Numbers
466
143 Electric Power Researeh Institute Reports Identified by NP Number
469
144 References by Author and Date
470
Answers to Problems
491
152 Chapter 2
493
153 Chapter 3
494
154 Chapter 4
498
155 Chapter 6
499
156 Chapter 7
502
158 Chapter 11
504
Index
507
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